The Sky Still Isn't Falling

The Sky Still Isn’t Falling

There are several articles from myPrescott eNews (www.prescottenews.com) column that take the position the sky isn’t falling in spite of lots of news to the contrary. Historically there have always been plenty of sources for doom and gloom and yet here we are in what is arguably the best country in the history of the world. Admittedly there have been some gloomy times in the 230 some years getting here but not nearly what the dismal predictions from the drive-by media would have you believe. Keep in mind bad news sells more papers and we humans have a flair for drama to be sure.
July 08 home sales from our local Prescott MLS were up 35% from July 07 but it wasn’t a big news story. Yesterday on the internet radio (KFI 640 AM, Los Angeles) there was news that Southern California home sales were up 65% recently from the previous year but that isn’t getting big traction either. If this keeps up for a couple months it could be a trend upwards but the news reports will probably call it a bump or a blip or something to reduce the possibility that things are cycling normally, as always. Some brave souls are buying houses and land now that the prices are way down, not really an advanced strategy to follow.
Please consider this- We are a little preoccupied with the election, the Dow Jones numbers, the Bailout proposal, and enough bad news to choke on for sure. If you are looking for the darker side of life there is a whole industry to help you be miserable. My question to you is what do you want it to say on your tombstone? “Beaten to death by bad news” or “Lived it up in spite of tough times”?
There is a powerful search engine on my website www.craigmann.net if moving to Prescott is on your list of stunning places to consider moving your life. Pay attention, work hard, and by all means live it up!

The Real Enemy in Real Estate

When the economy is good life is a vibrant thing. Just choosing what to buy for your latest passion (or your spouse) is very rewarding (wink). We go out to dinner more, ads are all over the TV and magazines, there is money in the bank, and we humans tend to become invincible. Come on, we all have a little superhero in us.
Eventually the party has to end. Usually things slow down, real estate values dip, people sense the difference and hold on to their “disposable income” (if there is such a thing). Pay the credit card down, watch the spending, and circle the wagons for a while we ride out the storm.
In 2006 we declared a buyer’s market since the market was overheated and has since dropped way off. Now in 2008 we learn there was some pretty serious damage to the core machine and repairs will be extremely costly. Uh-oh. Do we want to know what happened or do we just want somebody to fix it?
Let’s assume that whining isn’t going to help, selling your home for a loss certainly won’t help. The system and the people we elected let us down and now it’s up to … drum roll here.. us. The enemy here is Apathy. It doesn’t mean we are stupid, it means we are a little spoiled. The one thing you can afford to pay is attention. Engage your passion and your common sense. Don’t charge up a huge bill on your credit card. Teach your kids financial responsibility. Get out and vote for whoever suits your cause. Even if you lost some money or equity, don’t lose the lesson, and by all means keep a little optimism. This is America and we are still free and fabulous.
There is a powerful search engine on my website www.craigmann.net if moving to Prescott is on your list of stunning places to consider moving your life. Pay attention, work hard, and by all means live it up!

Better Mousetrap Logic in Real Estate

The 3 most important things in Real Estate are Location, Location, Location or Price, Price, Price?


The time honored statement in real estate is Location, Location, Location. They say it 3 times to emphasize that it’s the single most important detail, more important than any other details you might consider. There is even a little humor in there to make the clever point about location being single most important detail that takes 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place all by itself.
However, the logic is under assault these days by a formidable challenger- Market Forces... and here are a few in play in our market today;
1) The economy is struggling somewhat. Call it what you will, it’s sluggish.
2) From 2003 to 2006 most local real estate values doubled. People want this overheated market back so they can sell their home for big bucks.
3) From 2006 to the present real estate values are down, correcting, normalizing, and people are scared it’s never going to stop.
4) Just for fun let’s make the case that lower price cars, stores, labor, and products in general are all serious competition for the medium and upscale products on the market. Some people can still afford the top of the line items but there is large chunk of the population that is cash-flow conscious and they are the consuming based on Price, Price, Price.
There is no blame being placed here, the facts are the way they are because of market forces. Have you heard the theory about “someone is always trying to invent a better mousetrap”? How about if it’s approximately the same mousetrap for a lower price? It catches the mouse and costs less. Valid point.
We can argue the same points to some extent in real estate as well. Your dream house is tucked away in the pines, has everything you would love for your family but costs twice what you can afford. Another house is in your budget but it’s not in the pines and there is no view. So the ideal location is out of your price range but a functional home is in your budget, should you lower your standards just to have a home or wait until you can afford the dream house?
The correct answer is to discuss this whole issue with people you trust- Family, Friends, Accountants, Lenders, Realtors, and so on. It will take some discipline to buy a home, you have to make the payments and be careful what other things you spend your money on so that you don’t extend yourself too far. The upside to buying a home is that it will probably go up in value as the years go by. It’s not an overnight thing and it’s not usually get rich quick. Park your life, raise your kids, and improve the value of your home by the way you live in it and treat it. They don’t call it the American Dream for nothing.
If you aren’t ready to buy a home the next best thing is to rent with the idea of saving every month so you will have more money to make the down payment when you decide to buy. Renting is easier but the money goes to your landlord. Buying a home and living in it for some years is usually advantageous in many ways if you stick to the program.
Someone’s dream home is all about Location, Location, Location. To be fair most people’s first few homes are not what they would call their dream homes, they were more about Price, Price, Price. Hopefully they will have some fabulous memories attached to them and a family history that is part of the property. Add some dreamy details to the home while you are living there. Keep a good perspective and live it up!

There is a powerful search engine on my website www.craigmann.net if moving to Prescott is on your list of stunning places to consider moving your life. Pay attention, work hard, and by all means live it up!

Bring the Real Estate Market Back

What needs to happen to bring the real estate market back

There is no shortage of opinions on when the real estate market will cycle, or when the economy will bounce back to life. It really depends on is “What” more than “When”. The “What” mostly has to do with a general confidence that people have or don’t have about a large set of circumstances and conditions all over the world. Do you think it helps our local Prescott Real Estate market that Russia is invading it’s neighboring countries? How about the fact that this is an election year and in a couple of months we’ll have a whole new set of officials and a new president? Uncertainty in our minds has a definite effect on people. If the future looks gloomy people tend to hunker down, circle the wagons and stay put.
The laws of supply and demand are also having a big effect on real estate. There is a huge supply of homes and land and for the last 18 months demand has been low. This isn’t changing just yet although there are some signs of life in the demand area. Prices of homes are still coming down and that may accelerate the process.
Even the weather has an effect. If the Phoenix area has a drastically hot summer it causes some people to give up there dream in the valley of the sun and head for Prescott, a mile high in the mountains of Central Arizona.
So the theory is that the market will bounce back when people decide all is well with their view of the world and the local market. It’s a subjective idea, different for everyone, but when it happens it will be obvious. There are plenty of us waiting in the wings…
There is a powerful search engine on my website www.craigmann.net if moving to Prescott is on your list of stunning places to consider moving your life. Pay attention, work hard, and by all means live it up!